Between the Scottish League Cup in July, the Premiership last week, the EFL this and the Premier League next, it is truly difficult to know what to call the ‘start’ of the domestic football season.
It’s also hard to say whether a Manchester derby at Wembley is a great way to begin the domestic season, or whether it just feels like the same old, same old.
Either way, this Saturday’s Community Shield (3pm, Wembley) is our first chance to see two major Premier League teams in ‘competitive’ action before the league itself gets going in a week’s time.
We all know that Man City will go into this fixture as favourites, but what’s the clever bet? We reckon Pep Guardiola’s men to win without conceding is the angle to take.
City Won’t Make the Same Mistakes Again
Manchester City went into the FA Cup Final back in May as heavy favourites against their neighbours, just as they are for the Community Shield now.
As it turned out, they were so incredibly slow and complacent as to basically give the game away. Their performance was a genuine surprise.
I’ll still never understand how Man City didn’t win this FA Cup Final pic.twitter.com/dP6yGQ2L8Z
— Joël Grimal (@FFP83) August 4, 2024
In terms of recent derbies, they’d won the previous year’s FA Cup Final against Man United 2-1 and were much the better team. They followed up with a Premier League double last season, 3-0 at Old Trafford and 3-1 at the Etihad. In many ways, that one bad result was always coming but it looks a one-off.
There is a strong feeling that Man City won’t make the same mistakes this time as they did on May 25th.
Man United Still in City’s Wake
Erik ten Hag has, as was expected, made signings this summer to try and improve his squad.
Coming into this season though, new recruit Leny Yoro it seems is set to miss a number of months with a foot injury, while Rasmus Hojlund is reportedly out for six weeks with a hamstring strain.
Man United can beat Man City, but everything has to be right. They cannot afford such absentees.
Without injuries, Man United have the fifth most valuable squad in the Premier League at current values. That may slip to 7th depending on what happens at Tottenham and Newcastle over the next few weeks. Man City are out in front in that respect and, in fact, are still miles ahead of Man United.
What the Odds Say
Those squad values are represented in the match odds. Man City come in as 11/20 favourites over 90 minutes versus a best-priced 4/1 for both Man United. The draw is 10/3.
Guardiola’s men are as short as 1/3 to lift the trophy versus Man United’s 9/4.
Those margins are hard to trust. Man City are much the better team and are priced accordingly, though they often keep the ball too long. That is great for defence and allows them to dominate, but it doesn’t always lead to a flood of goals.
So where does that leave us?
Back the ‘Nils’
If indeed Man City do keep the ball for long periods of time on Saturday, their domination is expected to lead to a win this time. More to the point, they won’t be giving Man United many chances to score themselves.
Overall, Man City to win to nil is 23/10. That’s not a bad shout but isn’t a huge price. There may be even more value is backing them to win 1-0, 2-0 and 3-0 at 10/1, 17/2 and 12/1 respectively.
You couldn’t put your house on a massive score in a game like this, so those three scorelines are right in the sweet spot if the game plays out the way we think it will be.