There has been a lot of talk in horse racing this year, perhaps too much, about City Of Troy’s bid to land the elusive Breeders’ Cup Classic this Saturday. His date with destiny is coming up, but he is not the only show in town.
We’re off to Del Mar for this year’s meeting, right on the California coast near San Diego. There are 14 Breeders’ Cup races in total: five on Friday for the juveniles, and another nine on Saturday.
Once more a strong team heads over from Europe, complimenting what this year is a very high-quality meeting. All the scheduled races look top notch and we’re picking out the best bets based on our ratings.
A Few Runners to Note
A number of our top-rated horses are worth a second look, though aren’t necessarily comfortably ahead of their competition. They’re always worth keeping in mind of course as far as multiple bets are concerned.
Immersive and Scottish Lassie were both impressive in their Grade 1 preps, but the potential in the Godolphin filly allied with her more favourable draw gives her the edge in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.
Henri Matisse should appreciate conditions in the Juvenile Turf, though he is drawn wide. New Century is favourite after his Summer Stakes win in Canada, but Charlie Appleby’s Al Qudra could arguably have beaten him that day with a clear run.
William Buick could have ridden Al Qudra but has opted instead for Vintage Stakes winner Aomori City and that tells us a lot. His form is up there with what’s needed and there is clearly more to come.
Emily Upjohn has been handed a Turf assignment against the males rather than go against her own sex and that could prove to be wise. Over this trip and now reunited with Frankie Dettori, we can expect one last big run from the classy mare whose 3lb allowance can help make the difference.
Far Bridge is the best of the home contenders in that race, while Godolphin’s Rebel’s Romance has won it before and is always reliable.
Charlie Appleby may also get some joy with Cinderella’s Dream in the Filly & Mare Turf. She always looked capable of Grade 1 company when doing her thing in Dubai in the spring and she has taken to America well.
Breeders’ Cup: Best Bets for 2024
These five horses are our best bets based on ratings for the 2024 Breeders’ Cup.
Lake Victoria – Juvenile Fillies Turf (Friday)
Unbeaten so far, this looks like an obvious one. Aidan O’Brien’s Frankel filly is 4 from 4 now and crucially she’s done it on all types of ground.
Having successfully stepped down to six furlongs last time she showed she has pace, though her pedigree and previous form shows she’s unlikely to have any trouble over this tight, turning mile.
Even if not at her best, Lake Victoria looks to be at least 7lbs clear of the rest. Thought Process (Philip D’Amato) is the clear choice of the home team, followed by the O’Brien second string Heavens Gate.
| Horse | Rating |
|---|---|
| Lake Victoria | 113 |
| Thought Process | 106 |
| Heavens Gate | 105 |
| Correto | 101 |
| Fiery Lucy | 100 |
East Avenue – Juvenile (Friday)
Godolphin won this back in 2020 with Essential Quality and would almost certainly have won it a year earlier but for an injury to Maxfield. Now, via the taking East Avenue, they have another outstanding chance.
Ferocious, in opposition again, was very well fancied in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland but was ultimately put right in his place by this Medaglia d’Oro colt. Brendan Walsh’s runner pulled some 5¼ lengths clear and was not stopping either, showing the promise of even more to come.
He is the best of this bunch, with Chancer McPatrick done no favours by the draw. Gaming and Citizen Bull look good, but perhaps not good enough.
| Horse | Rating |
|---|---|
| East Avenue | 120 |
| Chancer McPatrick | 113 |
| Ferocious | 113 |
| Gaming | 113 |
| Citizen Bull | 112 |
Star Of Mystery – Turf Sprint (Saturday)
This race is chock full of quality. Earlier this year, getting Cogburn beaten would have seemed inconceivable but a closer look at him over the minimum trip brings its doubts.
Star Of Mystery should have been much closer to him at Saratoga back in June and she has improved so much since then. She’s fast, will love these conditions and gets that crucial 3lb allowance.
Big Evs, who won the juvenile version of this race last year, along with Bradsell and old foe Believing bring in some very strong British and Irish form but on this turning track things are very different.
| Horse | Rating |
|---|---|
| Star Of Mystery | 124 |
| Cogburn | 122 |
| Bradsell | 121 |
| Big Evs | 120 |
| Believing | 120 |
| Motorious | 120 |
| Ag Bullet | 120 |
Highland Falls – Classic (Saturday)
If Aidan O’Brien’s City Of Troy runs right up to his best form then he can win this, there is no doubt about that. We also know however that this race will be nothing like anything he’s taken part in before.
One thing’s for sure; with track and surface doubts there is no way City Of Troy is good value at around 7/4. Fierceness (Todd Pletcher) is the solid one in opposition after his Travers Stakes win, but the way Highland Falls won last time it appears he is underestimated at the odds.
On what could be a very good weekend for Godolphin, Brad Cox’s runner could go close to backing up his four-length win in the Jockey Club Gold Cup given that he is an improving four-year-old proven in similar conditions.
| Horse | Rating |
|---|---|
| Fierceness | 127 |
| Highland Falls | 127 |
| City Of Troy | 125 |
| Forever Young | 124 |
| Ushba Tesoro | 122 |
| Arthur’s Ride | 122 |
| Next | 120 |
Notable Speech – Mile (Saturday)
Another cracking contest. There are so many of a similar ability, but the standout runner is 2000 Guineas and Sussex Stakes winner Notable Speech (Charlie Appleby). He will love it here and has been aimed at this race for a while.
Had it not been for his soft ground flop in France, we’d be getting no price about Notable Speech in this race. As it is, he’s decent value ahead of some admittedly solid top-level performers.
| Horse | Rating |
|---|---|
| Notable Speech | 127 |
| Porta Fortuna | 120 |
| Diego Velazquez | 120 |
| Goliad | 120 |
| Win For The Money | 120 |
| Carl Spackler | 119 |