In the Cheltenham Festival’s top-level novice races, above all it’s important to look at race trends. We’re dealing with very good, but potentially inexperienced horses and that gives punters a problem.
Without as much form to go on, how do we know whether a horse has what it takes? We’re looking for the past to help us predict the future with stats from the past five renewals.
Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
| Year | Age | Market Pos. | Rating | Seasonal Runs | Form | Biggest Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 6 | 3 | 147 | 3 | 113112 | Grade 2 |
| 2023 | 6 | 3 | 150 | 2 | 1111 | Grade 1 |
| 2022 | 5 | J1 | 148 | 2 | 11 | Grade 1 |
| 2021 | 7 | 1 | 153 | 3 | 112111 | 2x Grade 1 |
| 2020 | 6 | J3 | 153 | 3 | 311F11 | Listed race |
Five, six and seven-year-olds tend to win this with six being ideal. All recent winners have been in the first three in the betting, all rated 147+ and having had two or three runs that season.
In truth, it may not narrow the field down that much so watch the betting.
Arkle Trophy
| Year | Age | Market Pos. | Rating | Seasonal Runs | Form | Biggest Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 6 | 1 | 157 | 3 | 12111U | Grade 1 |
| 2023 | 6 | 1 | 162 | 2 | 312111 | Grade 1 |
| 2022 | 8 | 1 | 159 | 5 | 3B1111 | Grade 1 |
| 2021 | 7 | 1 | 164 | 3 | 111111 | 2x Grade 2 + Grade 1 hurdle |
| 2020 | 6 | C7 | 144 | 3 | 111121 | Grade 2 |
Apart from one anomaly in 2020, this race has proven to be all about class. Four favourites in a row have won the Arkle and most needed around three runs to reach their peak. Grade 1 form is important too.
Favourite-backers will have to decide whether odds-on shot Majborough’s two runs is a negative, or whether him reaching a mark of 162 so quickly proves his class.
Turners Novices’ Hurdle
| Year | Age | Market Pos. | Rating | Seasonal Runs | Form | Biggest Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 6 | 1 | 157 | 3 | 11211 | Grade 1 |
| 2023 | 5 | 2 | 148 | 2 | 11 | Grade 2 |
| 2022 | 7 | 1 | 151 | 2 | 111311 | Grade 1 |
| 2021 | 6 | 1 | 150 | 3 | 1211 | Grade 1 |
| 2020 | 6 | 1 | 156 | 3 | 111111 | 3x Grade 1 |
Four favourites and a second favourite have won, the winning jollies all being rated 150+ and having won at least their last two.
Final Demand fits that profile, while The New Lion is just a little behind in terms of ratings.
Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase
| Year | Age | Market Pos. | Rating | Seasonal Runs | Form | Biggest Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 7 | 1 | 159 | 3 | 122211 | Grade 1 |
| 2023 | 7 | 4 | 153 | 3 | 612011 | Grade 2 |
| 2022 | 7 | 1 | 159 | 4 | 161111 | Grade 1 |
| 2021 | 7 | 1 | 164 | 3 | 111111 | 3x Grade 1 |
| 2020 | 8 | 3 | 153 | 3 | 12111F | Grade 2 |
Seven-year-olds are clearly favoured in this, while a high position in the market is needed but without necessarily being favourite. Ratings of 153+ gained over at least three runs during the season are also needed. Last time out wins are also a bug plus.
Current favourite Ballyburn fits the bill, but so does Better Days Ahead at a bigger ante-post price.
Triumph Hurdle
| Year | Age | Market Pos. | Rating | Seasonal Runs | Form | Biggest Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 4 | J4 | 139 | 1 | 3 | N/A |
| 2023 | 4 | 1 | 142 | 3 | 112 | Grade 2 |
| 2022 | 4 | 1 | 146 | 2 | 441121 | Grade 1 |
| 2021 | 4 | 2 | 147 | 3 | 111 | Grade 1 |
| 2020 | 4 | J5 | N/A | 1 | 32161 | Grade 3 |
We can’t take too much notice of the market in this juvenile race, though big outsiders tend not to win. A rating of 140+ would be nice, as would placed form last time out with ideally a Grade 1 or Grade 2 win.
Lulamba has a big reputation without fitting these stats, East India Dock is the obvious one while Hello Neighbour remains of interest.
Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle
| Year | Age | Market Pos. | Rating | Seasonal Runs | Form | Biggest Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 6 | 11 | 141 | 4 | 111324 | Maiden hurdle |
| 2023 | 5 | J8 | 136 | 2 | 12 | Novice hurdle |
| 2022 | 7 | 6 | N/A | 3 | 111 | Maiden hurdle |
| 2021 | 6 | 9 | 144 | 4 | 2120 | Maiden hurdle |
| 2020 | 6 | J3 | 152 | 3 | 2211 | Novice hurdle |
The ante-post market for this race is a little more open than the others. Age doesn’t help hugely, while ratings are also a little all over the place.
Experience does seem important with a minimum of three runs looking like a plus, with the value coming in those who haven’t yet won a graded hurdle race. This is likely why they haven’t been any better than third in the market. Look for the value here.