As we reach the end of 2024, it’s a good time to attempt to take a current view on the available ante-post horse racing markets. Naturally, they mostly surround the Cheltenham Festival and the Grand National right now.
In truth, the modern-day bookies continue to strangle the life out of the ante-post markets. They do so while complaining of a lack of business too. The cheek. We might still be able to squeeze some value from a few of these markets, however.
Arkle Chase – Tuesday, March 11
Dan Skelton’s L’EAU DU SUD could be the one to take a closer look at here at around 12/1. Many would say his form stands up well against the likes of Ballyburn, Majborough and Inthepocket who are all shorter in the market.
Sir Gino jumped fast and big and was impressive over fences at Kempton on December 27, but for now L’Eau Du Sud looks the value on day one of the Cheltenham Festival.
Champion Hurdle – Tuesday, March 11
We cannot say that Constitution Hill is the same horse as when at his best, even after winning the Christmas Hurdle. He has however taken a massive chunk out of the market, leaving us some potential value.
Even if you believe he can get back to his old level, we know enough about Nicky Henderson and the belligerence of Nico de Boinville to know that we cannot take what they say at face value. Not as punters.
State Man took advantage of his absence last year, but it could be that MYSTICAL POWER is the one at a huge 33/1. He didn’t do well at Newcastle in the Fighting Fifth, but he’s young and generally progressive and can certainly get to the right sort of level by March.
Champion Chase – Wednesday, March 12
IL ETAITS TEMPS is a good each-way price, though we don’t know that two miles is his best trip.
Jonbon looks like the real deal now but he’s short at 2/1. If for some reason he drifts, but not worryingly, he is backable too.
Take a look at the prices of Il Etaits Temps across the Champion Chase (20/1), and the Ryanair Chase on Thursday over 2m4f (10/1). The latter may be his real target but at these prices he’s probably backable for both events.
Stayers’ Hurdle – Thursday, March 13
There’s some rotten value (so far) for those who look capable in Friday’s Gold Cup, while we’ve already mentioned one in Thursday’s Ryanair Chase. The other feature race on day three is the Stayers’ Hurdle and this market is at least relatively interesting.
Teahupoo is understandably favourite, but a best of 13/8 is crazy in an ante-post market. An interesting runner at 25/1 is IMPAIRE ET PASSE, representing the all-powerful Willie Mullins yard.
He is a big price for an east winner, while it seems that we will see more from him coming up owing to two specific variables. Firstly, he’ll be better going up to three miles and also, he will pull out whatever his true best is when he has to go against the best at this level.
2000 Guineas – Saturday, May 3
Charlie Appleby and Godolphin have a very strong hand for the first Classic of the Flat season. Appleby of course is a trainer who has won it before with different types.
His Notable Speech in fact became the first horse since Frankel to win the 2000 Guineas and the Sussex Stakes in the same year. He did it in faster times as well.
We thought at first that his Ancient Truth was the one. Then, along came Shadow Of Light who beat Ancient Truth to land a memorable and rare Middle Park – Dewhurst Stakes double. Before all of that however there was RULING COURT.
The mega-expensive breeze-up buy was thrilling on debut but was then beaten at York. What we can’t forget however is the fact that he was the even-money favourite to beat current Guineas favourite The Lion In Winter that day and he’s since had a break.
These very forward offspring of Justify can reach very big levels at three, with Ruling Court looking like big value at 12/1.