Liverpool face Real Madrid in the Champions League at Anfield on Wednesday night in what should be another belter of a tie between these two. The trick is finding a bet that makes sense.
An immediate though, without any research, is that 3/1 is too big for a Real Madrid win. On closer inspection however, it’s easy to see why the money has come for the home side.
Head-to-Head Record
The head-to-heads between clubs doesn’t always tell us very much, given that past achievements of different groups of players should have nothing tangible to do with the current game. It can have an effect on the mentality shown, however.
Overall, Liverpool have won 3 times against Real Madrid, drawing once and losing 7 times. In fact, they won the first three meetings between the clubs and have now not won in 8 clashes.
| Date | Result |
|---|---|
| 15th Mar 2023 | Real Madrid 1-0 Liverpool |
| 21st Feb 2023 | Liverpool 2-5 Real Madrid |
| 28th May 2022 | Liverpool 0-1 Real Madrid |
| 14th Apr 2021 | Liverpool 0-0 Real Madrid |
| 6th Apr 2021 | Real Madrid 3-1 Liverpool |
| 26th May 2018 | Real Madrid 3-1 Liverpool |
| 4th Nov 2014 | Real Madrid 1-0 Liverpool |
| 22nd Oct 2014 | Liverpool 0-3 Real Madrid |
| 10th Mar 2009 | Liverpool 4-0 Real Madrid |
| 25th Feb 2009 | Real Madrid 0-1 Liverpool |
| 27th May 1981 | Liverpool 1-0 Real Madrid |
You could say that it’s high time they beat Real. They are also most definitely in the right form to be able to do it, especially with home advantage.
Ten of the 11 games between these two have come in the modern era, from 2009 onwards. In that time, there have been 26 goals meaning an average of 2.6 goals per game. This match could be heading the same way with goals expected.
Relative Form and Total Goals
As well as the head-to-head totals, the form of both sides this season tends to suggest a fair few goals on Wednesday night. Before we see the stats, you have to bear in mind that neither side concede many domestically as they tend to be superior to their opposition.
Real Madrid are unbeaten away from home in La Liga, scoring 10 and conceding 4 in 6 games. That gives them a total of 2.33 goals per game in total. In the Champions League, they’ve played once away from home, losing 1-0 to Lille.
Liverpool lost to Forest at home in the Premier League but have otherwise been invulnerable. With an aggregate of 11-3 in their favour, they too have seen 2.33 goals per game. In the Champions League, they’ve beaten Bologna and Leverkusen 2-0 and 4-0 respectively.
Teams and Form
Real Madrid were torn apart by Barcelona at home recently, so there is a worry about their quality when they play top-class opposition. Liverpool continue to go well.
All of Liverpool’s big hitter should be fit to play. Real changed formation in their weekend win, Mbappe moving out wide and Vini Jr going through the middle, but now the Brazilian and a few others are out.
As we’ve seen with Manchester City recently, big-name players being out has a major effect. This will not be the best that Real Madrid can be.
The Bet
We can’t really bet against Liverpool in these circumstances. The Real Madrid team is still full of talent, even with absentees, so goals at either end may be on the cards.
It’s hard to say how many Liverpool will need but the home side to win, to score more than once and Mo Salah to net during this time comes to around 5/2. That looks like a fair price.
- Liverpool to win.
- Mohamed Salah to score any time.
- Liverpool to score 2 or more goals.