Saturday afternoon sees Ascot host its biggest race outside of the royal meeting as we witness the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes.
Britain’s midsummer showpiece, this race ideally brings together our best three-year-old ‘Derby’ types with the top of the older crop. Things are a little different this year, however.
There is a Derby winner in the race this time, but he’s last year’s scorer Auguste Rodin. Along with seven others, he’s up against six-year-old Rebel’s Romance who is looking to land a belated career best win. We’re making the case for why he should be backed against the favourite.
Conditions Perfect for a Group 1 Showdown
By recent standards, this is a good field. Though the top three-year-olds aren’t here, there is some real quality on show and nine runners is not bad for a top-level race nowadays.
With £1.25 million up for grabs this race should, in theory, attract them from all over the place but there is just a feeling that some trainers simply believe their horses won’t cope. Some, too, will wait for York and the 1¼-mile Juddmonte International next month.
We’d always expect Coolmore and Godolphin to be involved however and with Auguste Rodin, Rebel’s Romance and others, they are.
Last year, Auguste Rodin went from trailing at QIPCO King George Day to winning his sixth Group 1 at Royal Ascot in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes. Will he now triumph in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth QIPCO Stakes this weekend? Let’s find out. pic.twitter.com/Cyh6NQdfwZ
— Ascot Racecourse (@Ascot) July 25, 2024
It appears we’ll have genuine, fast summer ground for this race unless it’s interfered with. As of Thursday morning, the track is ‘good’ most of the way round with some good to firm patches. The weather is also set fair.
All the talk in the lead-up to this race is about general 5/4 favourite August Rodin, but he can be frustratingly inconsistent despite being brilliant last time. His odds are short, so we’re making the case for backing Rebel’s Romance at a much more attractive price.
What Have Rebel’s Rivals Got to Offer?
A thorough check is of course needed on all of Rebel’s Romance’s top opposition for Saturday.
Dubai Honour (William Haggas) has hit his peak in either Australia or France. All his big wins have come with cut in the ground, though he should stay the mile and a half well if handling the surface.
The only three-year-old in the field is David Menuisier’s Sunway. He’s now up to a mark of 115, but that’s some way short of what’ll be needed here. His best form came last time over this trip at the Curragh on good ground, though his previous best work was all done in softer conditions.
Middle Earth, of the Gosden stable but soon to head to Australia with Ciaron Maher, is an interesting type. He has stayed 1¾ miles at Ascot well but in lesser company. He went over this track and trip last time out when beaten in a Group 2 while his peak form came at Newbury. He needs to find much more.
Many people think Aidan O’Brien’s second-string Luxembourg is the value shout and he is a proper, solid Group 1 performer.
He reached his career peaks at Epsom and over ten furlongs, this being a different challenge. He wasn’t at his best in this race last year either, or in other top 1m4f contests.
The top mare is Bluestocking of Ralph Beckett’s. She may or may not have reached her peak as she seems to be improving, though did have to pull out all the stops last time to beat Emily Upjohn.
She’s spent her time racing against her own sex and there is some argument for her not staying a mile and a half while connections also want some rain.
And what of the top one, August Rodin? A top juvenile then a very good Derby winner, he is a short-priced favourite for this race on the back of winning a quality renewal of the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot.
He is inconsistent, or at least has been. He was terrible in this race last year and in Dubai behind Rebel’s Romance in March. When he has been magic, it so far has been over ten furlongs or an easy twelve. Fast ground is fine, but there’s no proof yet that a proper 1m4f will see him stretch out to his best.
How Does Rebel’s Romance Compare to the Opposition?
There’s too much talk from British and Irish racing purists about horses going to America for “easy” Grade 1 wins. That’s nonsense.
Given the money on offer there, if Listed and Group 3 types can just rock up in the States and land Grade 1 titles then why isn’t everybody at it? It truly isn’t that easy, and Rebel’s Romance is one of the better horses to go over there in recent years and win Grade 1 turf races.
The point is that horses don’t always get the conditions they want at home and trainer Charlie Appleby knows this.
There’s a big difference between trundling up a wide, wind-swept straight course like Newmarket and going round tight bends on genuine fast ground like the tracks in the States offer. Conditions are the reason that Rebel’s Romance has been a globetrotter, not a lack of ability at the top level.
This six-year-old is still improving and that’s a major point to make. He has already achieved the same official rating, 123, as August Rodin at his peak and crucially he did it in Dubai in a top race over a mile and a half, outstaying the rest.
Trip and ground are no problem, he travels well, and he has now won four races in a row. More pertinently, he has won them by 1¼, 3, 2 and 2 lengths never fully stretched, so we don’t know what his new ceiling is.
The horse that was 3/1 against Equinox last year is underrated and overpriced at 9/2 and it would be no surprise to see him finishing best of all come Saturday afternoon.