We have another cracking afternoon of live TV jump racing on Saturday. With that, we’re looking to keep our interest going for as long as we can with an each-way accumulator.
There are some races we simply couldn’t include on the list. Aintree’s 1.32, a 2½-mile handicap chase, looks to competitive to be sure about though Richmond Lake and Grandads Cottage do show up well.
In Sandown’s Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase (1.50), Touch Me Not could run very well. That would mean a three-way go with the two big guns in the race, offering us no value with only two places available.
Lastly, we also left out the Becher Chase at Aintree (2.07). While on its own it’s the big betting race of the day, we cannot take a risk with an accumulator. King Turgeon, Cruz Control, Chianti Classico, Gaboriot and Iron Bridge all have claims to start with, and there are only three places to fight for.
In the end, we plumped for these five races:
1.15 Sandown
The winner of this handicap hurdle gets a run in the Pertemps Final at the Cheltenham Festival in March. 10 runners have been declared, meaning there are three places up for grabs which is good for us.
Though Operation Manna and West To The Bridge could go well, we got two of them clear of the rest on our ratings. Henri The Second (Paul Nicholls) is an obvious type, but early joint-favourite Dubrovnik Harry of Harry Fry’s yard takes the eye more.
The eight-year-old has been off the track for a while, since February in fact, but he was improving at that point and could still be pretty well in. He looks booked for a place to us.
2.25 Sandown
There are three places available for this two-mile handicap hurdle, handing us the sort of leeway we’re looking for from a betting point of view. It was close on ratings, but we have an advantage in this leg.
Five of these runners were clear of the rest in the betting. That’s a good start, as if the market has it right then we are looking for three out of five to be placed. Within those five, Altobelli (Harry Fry) looks particularly interesting.
He improved to a good level last season when placed at Ascot. After that he also went off at only 18/5 in a Premier Handicap Hurdle at Ascot and 5/1 for a similar race at Newbury. He is fancied at this level and can run it close again.
3.00 Sandown
This is the big race, the Grade 1 Tingle Creek Chase over two miles. Jonbon is looking to become the first horse since the great Kauto Star in 2006 to win this race twice in a row. Most people, including us, think he will.
Jonbon has been long odds-on all week. There are reasons to keep him in our bet, however. We have a dead eight at the time of writing, so while we risk going down to two places with a non-runner, we currently have three available.
The market leader looks to be well clear of his rivals in all truth. Edwardstone is not getting any younger, Jonbon took care of Boothill easily enough last time and on a level playing field, neither JPR One nor Quilixios should get to him.
His odds are drifting slightly, so we might get a better price than anticipated. Jonbon could add a winner to the bet, but we also have the insurance of a place if he happens to fail for some reason.
3.17 Aintree
Aintree’s closing race is their 2½-mile handicap hurdle. Once again, with twelve runners declared we have the relative luxury of three places here and that’s important.
Tamar Bridge is interesting here for Olly Murphy and we can see him going well, while it seems close to call between plenty of others. Santos Blue, Bingoo, Choccabloc and The Nagger Reidy will all be fancied to some degree.
The standout however was Uncle Bert, trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies. He’s around a 15/2 shot at the time of writing but he also looks like a solid place proposition. He weakened out to finish second in a 4-runner race last time but will be all the better for the experience.
3.35 Sandown
We’re back at Sandown for their finale and ours, the London National over an extended 3½ miles. We’ve got three places again here with 11 horses entered, so that helps the numbers plenty.
Broken Halo can go OK, as can both Ballygrifincottage and Unanswered Prayers. Another potentially well weighted is Montgomery and fair enough, any of those runners could win this race.
Sara Bradstock’s runner Mr Vango however was the standout runner for us, and he looks the best handicapped horse in the race. Nico de Boinville has been booked to ride the eight-year-old, a horse with only four runs over fences to his credit thus far.
There’s plenty to come from him in this sphere and let’s not forget that he went off as the 4/1 favourite for the Scottish National in April. He could be the market leader again here, and much is expected of him.
The Bet
Our five-leg, each-way accumulator for Saturday’s racing is:
- Dubrovnik Harry, 1.15 Sandown
- Altobelli, 2.25 Sandown
- Jonbon, 3.00 Sandown
- Uncle Bert, 3.17 Aintree
- Mr Vango, 3.35 Sandown