With the opening Premier League weekend out of the way, the time is about right to pick out some outright bets for the season ahead.
True, more signings can and will be made by clubs, but that is part of the fun as we look to second-guess whose squads can improve by deadline day on August 30th. Their odds can and likely will bloat or contract based on those deals.
How can we begin to rank the 20 Premier League clubs? There is no single, solid way but transfer values are a good place to start.
We can see what each player and overall squad is worth and assign points accordingly. That, allied with the average age of the squad and any potential incomings and outgoings can give us a strong idea of where they each stand. Harmony at the clubs can also add or take away from their overall value.
Another Two-Way Title Battle?
Manchester City and Arsenal do look to be clear as far as challenging for the Premier League title goes. They are priced at 11/10 and 13/8 respectively at the time of writing.
It could be closer than that, making Arsenal the value in this market but neither bet at those prices is worth waiting until May for unless you are lumping it in an accumulator with other league winners.
Both sides began with routine wins this season, albeit Man City’s was away at Chelsea which in theory was a more difficult game. Though these two will face much harder games than Rangers and Celtic will in Scotland, the situation is similar to the one north of the border.
Every week will be like a tennis game, every point dropped by one team celebrated by the other as a close, long and drawn-out battle is expected.
Villa the Value Again?
The top 6 and top half markets aren’t much better. Those expected to be in the top ten come May are short prices to do so. Those challenging genuinely for the top 6 in fact are all odds-on to achieve just that position.
Aston Villa are undoubtedly the best value in this section at 5/4 to finish in the top 6. Remember, that price is available for a club that finished fourth last season.
That 5/4 looks great value if you believe there will be another turbulent season for the likes of Chelsea and Manchester United, while it’s hard to rank Tottenham accurately. The one proviso here is that Villa now have Champions League football to contend with and that could make it a tough year for them.
Champions League Football to Return to St James’ Park?
In the top 4 market, Man City and Arsenal are the obvious ones while Liverpool are solid enough but are priced at a restrictive 2/5.
Chelsea and Man United are a little short and aren’t reliable at all based on current trends, while as we mentioned Tottenham are hard to nail down though they may well have a good year.
Newcastle are the value call here at 2/1. Eddie Howe’s men finished in this position two seasons ago and, all things considered, had another good season last time around finishing top seven and beating the likes of PSG along the way. They were also very free scoring indeed.
It’s highly doubtful that the injuries they suffered from last term can be as bad this time around. Sandro Tonali is set to return now and there is a chance of Marc Guehi and/or other new players coming in.
Support is riding high in Newcastle at the moment, their excellent coaching team is loving life and now the top-class Bruno Guimaraes has been added to the “leadership team” in the squad he is looking to cement his place as a Toon legend.
He, along with Alex Isak, Anthony Gordon, Tino Livramento and Lewis Hall are improving fast meaning the squad gets better naturally even without signings. 2/1 could look a big price in a few months’ time.
The Bottom End
Manchester City are as low as 9/1 to finish in the bottom half this season. It sounds mental, but the price is based on the constant threat of a major points deduction for their famed 115 charges. That’s an interesting bet, but it’s chancy.
As for relegation, as always there are the obvious contenders. Leicester and Ipswich are odds-on to go down with Southampton arguably the one promoted team who could perhaps escape. That is of course unless Ipswich Town continue to progress quickly.
That leaves Fulham very vulnerable at a tempting 5/1 to go down. That’s the recommendation from the bottom end of the league as it seems they don’t have the quality to finish near the top, while any significant time on the sidelines for a couple of their better players opens them right up.
Recommended Bets:
- Newcastle United to finish in the top 4 – 2/1
- Fulham to be relegated – 5/1