It’s Trials Day at Cheltenham on Saturday. Included on the seven-race card are no fewer than five Grade 2 events and a Premier Handicap chase.
Storm Éowyn isn’t expected to disrupt the action, luckily enough, and we are set fair for a top day of jump racing action.
The Trials Day events are good races in their own right. There is nothing stopping you from having a bet on Saturday’s action, but we are coming at things from a different angle.
Five of these races have major corresponding events at the Cheltenham Festival, hence “trials”. We’re looking for some ante-post value. So, if you fancy a horse on Saturday, it may well be worth backing it in some way for the Festival in March.
JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle (1.15)
Corresponding Festival Race: Triumph Hurdle
Main Contenders:
- East India Dock (James Owen)
- Sauvignon (Paul Nicholls)
- Stencil (Noel George & Amanda Zetterholm)
- Quantock Hills (Warren Greatrex)
East India Dock was already odds-on when the declarations were made, and the money has continued to come. He is certainly the most likely winner of this race and is a general 6/1 second favourite for the Triumph Hurdle.
The Triumph favourite, Nicky Henderson’s Lulamba, ran to a mark in the low 130’s and can get better, but this horse is already rated 137 and could break the 140 barrier on Saturday which would decrease his odds.
Ante-Post Angle: Back East India Dock at 6/1 for the Triumph Hurdle.
Betfair Cotswold Chase (2.25)
Corresponding Festival Race: Cheltenham Gold Cup
Main Contenders:
- L’Homme Presse (Venetia Williams)
- Gentlemansgame (Mouse Morris)
- Chantry House (Nicky Henderson)
- Stage Star (Paul Nicholls)
Let’s be honest; the fact that L’Homme Presse is 25/1 for the Gold Cup and our third favourite here, Chantry House, is a 154-rated 11-year-old tells you that this won’t be the strongest Gold Cup prep race.
L’Homme Presse is a ten-year-old now, rated 163, and is around even money for this. Gentlemansgame (160) has a little more scope and is a 3/1 shot. The only possible outcome which may have a tangible impact on the Gold Cup market is an impressive victory for Mouse Morris’ runner.
With that, the smart money may be on chancing that happening, then Gentlemansgame going on to run well in the big one on March 14.
Ante-Post Angle: Back Gentlemansgame each-way for the Gold Cup at 33/1.
Unibet Hurdle (3.00)
Corresponding Festival Race: Champion Hurdle
Main Contenders:
- Constitution Hill (Nicky Henderson)
- Brentford Hope (Harry Derham)
- Fils d’Oudairies (Gordon Elliott)
Constitution Hill, belatedly, returned to the track and won last time out but wasn’t overly impressive by his very high standards. He’s around 1/10 for this race, so there’s no betting opportunity on the day
Punters do have one thing to decide: will he improve having had that run, or is he just not as good anymore? He should win this race either way, but he’s already as low as 4/7 for the Champion Hurdle.
Brentford Hope is the second choice here and a 25/1 shot for the Champion Hurdle. The only possible play is to try and get extra places on him each-way for the Champion Hurdle at a massive price and hope for a big run on Saturday.
Ante-Post Angle: Back Brentford Hope each-way at extra places for the Champion Hurdle at 25/1.
Betfair Cleeve Hurdle (3.35)
Corresponding Festival Race: Stayers’ Hurdle
Main Contenders:
- Crambo (Fergal O’Brien)
- Strong Leader (Olly Murphy)
- Gowel Road (Nigel Twiston-Davies)
- Monmiral (Paul Nicholls)
Crambo is a pretty uneasy favourite for this race. There has been some money for Gowel Road in the run-up to the weekend, so that’s interesting, though he definitely has some ground to make up on the top-rated horses and doesn’t look like a Stayers’ Hurdle winner.
At the same age as Crambo, Strong Leader is rated 2lbs higher. That rating could be higher but for a bad run behind Crambo last time. He was also 11/8 favourite for that race and has now had a wind op.
The smart play is to back him each-way for the Stayers’, possibly even at 11/4 for this race too.
Ante-Post Angle: Back Strong Leader each-way for the Stayers’ Hurdle at 20/1.
Ais Novices’ Hurdle (4.10)
Corresponding Festival Race: Turner Novices’ Hurdle
Main Contenders:
- Potters Charm (Nigel Twiston-Davies)
- Bill Joyce (Jonjo & AJ O’Neill)
- Quebecois (Paul Nicholls)
- Sixmilebridge (Fergal O’Brien)
Some money has come in for Sixmilebridge, but Fergal O’Brien often has winners at Cheltenham meetings outside of the festival. It may not help us much in March. Potters Charm is a shade of odds-on for this and is second favourite at 7/1 for the Turners.
He is the most likely winner of this by some way, he’s unbeaten and for many is a better horse than expensive purchase and Turners favourite The New Lion.
Ante-Post Angle: Back Potters Charm at 7/1 for the Turner Novices’ Hurdle.