Four weeks ago, it’s fair to say nobody would need to be encouraged to put their faith in England winning the Euros. Some point their money on it too.
Now after some lacklustre performances however, we reckon it’s pertinent to offer three specific reasons why they can get the job done in Berlin.
1 – Passing Variation
There is still a lot of tiki-taka football being played by Spain and frankly, it can be beautiful to watch. It isn’t always that effective against good defences though.
England can do similar, case in point Kobbie Mainoo whose pass completion rate at the Euros is an amazing 96%. It is the highest in the tournament in fact.
Equally however, England are adept at spraying long, cross-field passes when they need to in order to stretch a defence.
2 – Battling Qualities
England have fallen behind in all three knockout games so far, yet have come out on top each time. Being one goal down may not seem like a big deal to the uninitiated, but trust me if you’d said a team would fall behind three games in a row, I’d put solid money on them to be beaten at some stage in the sequence.
On the downside, Southgate has form here. Should England go ahead, that’s great. If they go ahead too early however, that’s when they tend to try and battle it out at 1-0 for the whole game and you can’t do that against Spain.
If this is a close game one way or the other, then the longer it goes on the more it suits England rather than Spain.
3 – The Bellingham Effect
Don’t get me wrong, this isn’t about Jude Bellingham just being head and shoulders above everyone on the field. He’s not. He hasn’t even consistently been England’s best player at this tournament.
Go right back to basics though. Bellingham is the best player in Spain, hands down. He is better than anything in their league and better than anything they have in their team and he’s not the only example we could give.
Spain have some top-class talent, but also have players like Joselu who would not get into most Premier League teams at the top end of the league. They in fact have a bunch of individuals who wouldn’t get into the England team on merit, as good a team set-up as they are.
With that, England’s players simply have to realise that they are better than their opposite numbers. They must play with the confidence that comes with a player who knows he is better that who he is up against and not fear the occasion. It seems with the battling qualities mentioned, they are all capable of doing that.
Take the 5/4 If You See It
None of the above means England will definitely win the final, but this is about betting value.
At the start of the tournament, England were 7/2 favourites among 24 teams. They were expected to reach the final and they have reached the final.
Despite that, they are now second-favourites in a two-horse race at 5/4 outright (13/5 over 90 minutes). You’ll see plenty worse bets than that in the upcoming domestic season.