It’s FA Cup third round weekend and that always conjures up some great memories for football fans. True, the competition may not be what it once was, but it is still bound to produce some great headlines.
The major shocks are hard to come by these days in all truth. It’s hard to see Salford City beating Manchester City, or Liverpool succumbing to Accrington Stanley (who are they?). That said, there may still be some value in the odd game here and there.
It feels like a classic sporting winter Saturday. The TV schedule, if we’re lucky, will be full of FA Cup games and horse racing and that’s what life is all about.
We do still have some bad weather around. Changes have been made to Saturday’s racing schedule and there remains the risk of football and racing postponements.
As things stand, these are five selections we really rather fancy on Saturday:
Football: Bristol City to Beat Wolves, FA Cup, 12.00
There was a slight bounce for Wolves after they changed head coach, but that appears to have fallen flat now. Though they had plenty of the ball, they were just too easy to score against when they played Nottingham Forest the other day and we can’t ignore that.
Given recent results, it appears that this is still a relegation battle for Wolves and that means two things. Firstly, they are little better in real terms than a Championship side. Secondly, they will surely rest some key players and keep them for their Premier League fight.
In that case, Championship eight-placed Bristol City is the wrong place for them to go. The Aston Gate side have 23 points from 13 games at home in the league this season and will of course be fully motivated. Prices like 7/4 and 9/5 are a bit daft really.
Football: Walsall to Beat Tranmere, League 2, 12.30
It’s another early kick-off at the Bescot Stadium, this time in League 2. Table-toppers Walsall are hosting Tranmere Rovers, and this is a game they really should be winning en route to securing promotion to League 1.
Walsall are currently an impressive 10 points clear in the league with a game in hand. Had that been a Liverpool or a Man City at the top level, they’d be 1/5 to beat their opposition this week but instead we’re being offered 8/13 to 1/2.
This is 1st versus 20th and there are 27 points between them. Walsall remain in great form having not been beaten since their FA Cup exit back on the 30th of November. The price is just too good not to take about an apparent home banker.
Racing: Saint Segal to Win the 1.35 at Kempton
Assuming no more weather-related disasters we should see a good card at Kempton on Saturday. Among the seven-race entertainment is this extended two-and-a-half-mile handicap chase in which we like the chances of Saint Segal.
Jane Williams’ runner may well be favourite for this race, but he’s a proper favourite. When he won comfortably last time there was plenty in the tank, yet he’s wisely been given 24 days between races, and he should improve once more.
The seven-year-old appears to be well handicapped just now and should have no problem in the conditions, making early prices such as 3/1 look fair value.
Racing: Hitman to Win the 2.42 at Kempton
We’re staying at Kempton Park, this time for the Grade 2 Silviniaco Conti Chase.
Silviniaco Conti himself was of course trained by Paul Nicholls and he saddles both the odds-on favourite and our selection in this event. The favourite, Pic d’Orhy, won once again on his seasonal debut but he was not at his previous high level. He could also be around 4/9 which is a crazy price.
We wouldn’t expect him to race much beyond the 155 sort of level here. Given that Hitman gets 6lbs from him, that gives him a major chance. He is officially rated 156 already and could outdo that under Freddie Gingell and so at around 9/2 he is the value play.
Football: Coventry to Beat Sheffield Wednesday, FA Cup, 18.00
One of the later TV games in the FA Cup brings together two sides with a good history in the competition. Both Wednesday and Coventry City are in the Championship these days, but it could be home advantage that settles this.
Though the Owls are above their hosts in the league table, they have amassed 17 points in 12 away games to Coventry’s 18 in 12 at home. That’s close, but there has been some money coming in already for Coventry this week which may be an indicator as to where these two teams are in terms of going for the cup.
Coventry in fact beat Sheffield Wednesday 4-1 here in a fourth round replay last February and they can pull off a similar trick. They should be available at around 17/20 to get the job done.
How to Use Our Five Selections
With five individual selections here, you could use them in a Lucky 31. That involves 5 singles, 10 doubles, 10 trebles, 5 four-folds and a 5-fold accumulator. Just watch that unit stake however, as it will be multiplied by 31.
You can also put on just the straight accumulator, while at least three of these bets are worth betting in singles as Bristol City, Hitman and Saint Segal are all available at genuine backable prices.
Let’s just hope the weather doesn’t let us down.