The 2025 Cheltenham Festival is right around the corner and the fields are gradually taking shape. With that, we’re looking at some trends and essentially nailing down what it takes to win the major Grade 1 events.
Stats from the last five runnings of each race are being used to give us a clue.
Champion Hurdle
| Year | Age | Market Pos. | Rating | Seasonal Runs | Form | Biggest Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 7 | 1 | 169 | 3 | 121111 | 8 x Grade 1 |
| 2023 | 6 | 1 | 173 | 2 | 111111 | 4 x Grade 1 |
| 2022 | 8 | 1 | 165 | 2 | 111111 | 10 x Grade 1 |
| 2021 | 7 | 1 | 161 | 2 | 111111 | 6 x Grade 1 |
| 2020 | 6 | 1 | 159 | 2 | 111911 | Grade 1 |
The last five Champion Hurdles have all gone to the favourite, so there’s the obvious place to start. Four of them had run twice that season, the latest winner only once more with three seasonal runs.
All five winners also won at least their last two races, while they were all also multiple Grade 1 winners or had at least won a Grade 1 last time out. Current form is clearly crucial in this race.
Now that Constitution Hill is back in form, he starts to look difficult to beat.
Queen Mother Champion Chase
| Year | Age | Market Pos. | Rating | Seasonal Runs | Form | Biggest Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 9 | 3 | 162 | 3 | 2221P3 | Grade 2 |
| 2023 | 9 | 1 | 175 | 2 | 121113 | 4 x Grade 1 |
| 2022 | 8 | 2 | 175 | 2 | 111112 | 2 x Grade 2 |
| 2021 | 7 | 2 | 156 | 2 | 121113 | Grade 1 |
| 2020 | 9 | 2 | 165 | 2 | 442225 | Grade 1 (novice) |
Only one favourite has won the Champion Chase in the last five years, though all were in the first three in the betting. That means class and current form are important.
Two runs for the season seems important, three max, while most are placed in recent runs without actually winning. Some Grade 1 form is useful but apparently not crucial.
Jonbon looks the real deal now and as a nine-year-old looks the right favourite.
Ryanair Chase
| Year | Age | Market Pos. | Rating | Seasonal Runs | Form | Biggest Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 9 | 4 | 165 | 4 | 454323 | Grade 1 |
| 2023 | 9 | 3 | 163 | 2 | 613317 | 2 x Grade 1 |
| 2022 | 8 | 1 | 174 | 2 | 411211 | 2 x Grade 1 |
| 2021 | 7 | 1 | 162 | 3 | 214641 | Grade 2 |
| 2020 | 9 | 2 | 170 | 2 | 141212 | 4 x Grade 1 |
This is strictly a championship race, but it does share top billing with the Stayers’ Hurdle on day three.
A top three market position looks like it’s needed, as does a rating of at least 160 but the higher the better. Two to three seasonal runs is the sweet spot, as is a Grade 1 win even if it didn’t come last time out. Fact To File fits the profile, but Il Est Francais could be the value.
Stayers’ Hurdle
| Year | Age | Market Pos. | Rating | Seasonal Runs | Form | Biggest Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 7 | 1 | 162 | 1 | 611341 | 2 x Grade 1 |
| 2023 | 11 | 9 | 152 | 4 | 1455P4 | Grade 1 |
| 2022 | 7 | 2 | 164 | 2 | 111PF2 | 2 x Grade 2 |
| 2021 | 6 | 7 | 160 | 3 | 213211 | Grade 1 |
| 2020 | 7 | C9 | 146 | 5 | 3239F3 | Grade 2 (novice) |
In terms of age, price, number of runs and recent form this race is a basket case. If you fancy a horse, then stick to your guns.
Otherwise, look for some big each-way value with a horse who has past Grade 1 form.
Gold Cup
| Year | Age | Market Pos. | Rating | Seasonal Runs | Form | Biggest Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 8 | 1 | 179 | 3 | 112311 | 7 x Grade 1 |
| 2023 | 7 | 1 | 173 | 2 | 11F111 | 4 x Grade 1 |
| 2022 | 8 | 1 | 172 | 2 | 321212 | 3 x Grade 1 |
| 2021 | 8 | 4 | 164 | 4 | 1211F4 | Grade 2 |
| 2020 | 8 | 1 | 175 | 1 | 1R1121 | 2 x Grade 1 |
The only seven-year-old here went on to win again and is clear favourite once more (Galopin Des Champs).
Eight-year-olds lightly raced for the season, rated highly are hard to come by. Grey Dawning (33/1) is the closest thing to match the ideal stats and could be the each-way value in the race.