While one of the most beloved competitions in Europe, it’s fair to say that the resumption of the German Bundesliga has rarely been met with such a feverish appetite.
But as of Saturday May 16th, the action will return and punters will have their chance to bet on – and live stream – some quality football at last.
It’s worth noting that all games will be played as home/away as normal, rather than the neutral venue scheme floated for the Premier League’s return, although all games will of course be played behind closed doors.
From a betting perspective, there will still be home advantage to consider – although this is likely to be less marked than in normal circumstances.
It feels as though the action has been away for months, rather than a matter of weeks, so we thought it was a good idea to have a recap of what has happened so far this season and try to identify any betting value that arises.
Bundesliga Top 6
With nine rounds of matches left to play, it could not be closer at the summit of the Bundesliga table:
| Position | Team | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 55 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 51 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 50 |
| 4 | Borussia Monchengladbach | 49 |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen | 47 |
| 6 | Schalke | 37 |
A rather fallow period between October-December ultimately cost former boss Niko Kovac his job at Bayern Munich, and his successor Hans-Dieter Flick has overseen an outstanding turnaround – since December 14, their league form reads a not-too-shabby W10 D1 L0.
That form, and their four-point cushion, makes them as short as 2/9 to retain their title, although it won’t be plain sailing.
They are scheduled to take on Borussia Dortmund away on May 26th, while games against other top-six outfits in Leverkusen and M’gladbach will test their resolve.
However, Dortmund fans will know they have to take on Bayern AND RB Leipzig yet, so it’s fair that the current leaders are so heavily fancied.
Bundesliga Bottom 6
As you may be aware, in the Bundesliga two teams are automatically relegated, and then the third from bottom takes on the third-placed team in Bundesliga 2 to determine whether they go down or not.
Here’s how things stand at the moment:
| Position | Team | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hertha Berlin | 28 |
| 14 | Augsburg | 27 |
| 15 | Mainz | 26 |
| 16 | Fortuna Dusseldorf | 22 |
| 17 | Werder Bremen | 18 |
| 18 | Paderborn | 16 |
When you look at the current table, it’s hard to make a case for Paderborn or Werder Bremen to get out of the mess – they have won just four games each this term, and in their last 12 combined matches earned just two points.
That said, Werder have a game in hand on Dusseldorf, and the Expected Points table suggests that they have performed better this term than the side one place above them.
Werder have to play five of the top eight as yet, including Bayern, but they still have a date with Paderborn where they will hope to earn three much-needed points. Dusseldorf, meanwhile, return against Paderborn but then must face Bayern, Dortmund, Leipzig and Schalke – there is certainly scope to back Dusseldorf to be relegated at 8/11.
Bundesliga Betting: Form a Factor?
One of the things punters must consider now is whether form shown before the break has any relevance to what is to come.
Everyone will have their own opinion on that, but there aren’t many Bundesliga sides who broke up in as high spirits as FC Koln.
They won four of their last six prior to the league being suspended – defeats coming to Bayern and M’gladbach, blasting 16 goals in the process.
Plenty has been made of their three positive tests in their squad, but it has been reported that those involved showed no symptoms, and that quarantine was simply a safety measure.
With that in mind, their odds of 21/20 to defeat Mainz look outstanding value.