We’ve all been there on a Saturday morning as we put our football bets on ahead of the action. Do we back outright winners, goals-based wagers or a combination of the two?
Both teams to score and Over/Under 2.5 Goals….both offer plenty of potential for landing big value.
The chances are that you may never have considered backing the Over 6.5 Goals market before, and why would you? Betting on seven or more goals in a football match feels like a fool’s errand in every sense of the word….
Mind you, it wasn’t enough to put off one Paddy Power punter, who is now three grand better off after his dastardly bet on a couple of goal-laden contests over in America!
Double the Fun Stateside
The punter in question, based in County Waterford, Ireland, decided to eschew the standard English coupon and instead focus on American football (should that be ‘soccer’).
But the genius in question steered clear of Major League Soccer to instead focus on the United Soccer League (USL), which is the second tier of football in the country.
Noting that there tends to be a surfeit of goals Stateside, the canny Irish bettor placed a £20 trixie – a system bet made up of three selections, with a trio of doubles and a treble the target – on the Over 6.5 Goals market.
His acca got off to the best possible start when North Carolina FC dismantled their visitors, Charlotte Independence, by a scoreline of 6/2; which in itself paid out at a handsome 40/1.
Then came heartbreak: in the second leg, Louisville City FC demolished Richmond Kickers 6-0; a great result for them, but not so for our intrepid punter, who was one goal shy of another big win.
Not to worry though, as system bets offer the chance of a cracking consolation prize. And that’s exactly what panned out when Charlestown Battery and New York Red Bulls II played out a monumental 4-4 draw; securing another 33/1 winning leg and ensuring our Irish betting sensation went home with €3,334 for an initial outlay of just €20. Happy days!
Goals Galore for Risk-and-Reward Punters
Let’s be honest: the wager outlined above is one of those once-in-a-lifetime bets that you can boast about to your mates down the pub and tell the grandkids about one day.
But with a bit of smart logic and research, we can see that such wagers on goal-laden affairs can yield dividends.
First off, we couldn’t give a monkeys who wins; we’re just waiting for the ball to hit the back of the onion bag, preferably as many times as possible.
One comparable league is the Dutch Jupiler Division – the Netherland’s version of the Championship, which in 2017/18 saw 25% of all matches deliver Over 4.5 Goals.
It’s early days in the 2018/19 campaign, but so far the average goal count per game is 3.25, with 25% of matches ending in a scoreline of 3-2, 5-2, 5-0 or 4-1.
There’s a handy lust for goals in the Australian NPL Western division too, where the league average per 90 minutes is a whopping 3.60. This past gameweek saw two matches end 8-1 and 7-1, with bottom side Joondalup United conceding 102 goals in just 26 games so far.
But that pales in comparison to the Queensland Division, where the average goal count per game is a staggering 4.26 with bottom club Sunshine Coast conceding an average of 4.50 goals per game alone!
