In just over a week’s time, the British public will go to the polls once more to vote on the next general election.
The sentiment ever since the election was confirmed was that the Conservatives, led by heavyweight prime minister Boris Johnson, would canter to a landslide victory and claim a huge majority when all of the votes had been counted.
But just lately, something has begun to change.
We’re now into TV debate season, and whatever your political allegiance you would be hard pressed to suggest that Boris is covering himself in glory with his bluster and, in many peoples’ eyes, arrogance.
Then there was the revelation that Jeremy Corbyn believes he has proof that the Tories plan to sell off parts of the NHS after Brexit has been completed, should they be successful at the polls.
And in the wake of the London Bridge atrocity that cost two young people their lives last week, the PM has also been accused of using their deaths for his own political gain.
It’s a hat-trick of own goals from Johnson, and according to the latest polls and voter sentiment there’s plenty of reason for supporters of rival parties to be cheerful.
The Electoral Calculus, as produced in Conservative newspaper The Daily Express, is now forecasting a 34-seat win for the Tories – down from 76 – which is not the heavy majority that Boris so desires.
Survation, the poll specialist, has been interviewing voters on behalf of the Good Morning Britain show. In their count of over 1,000 people, the Tories look set to win 42% of the vote and Labour 33% – remember, GMB is very broadcasting aimed at the Conservative voting demographic.
Both YouGov and the Politico ‘Poll of Polls’ have recorded the same percentages as Survation but for the whole populous.
What Do the Polls Means for General Election Bettors?
It’s important to note that these polls and surveys are very much a snapshot of time, and that there is still significant scope for change in the week ahead.
But momentum is now with Labour as Boris continues to bungle his way through campaigning, and if Corbyn has another ace up his sleeve like the NHS dossier then the Conservatives’ lead could narrow yet further.
There are a number of marginal seats up and down the land too, and the winner of these will go some way towards determining whether the Tories get their majority in the House or not.
And another YouGov poll, which was published on December 2, shows that Labour could gain an extra eight seats in London, where they tend to hold sway already.
| Majority | Betting Odds |
|---|---|
| Conservative Majority | 1/2 |
| No Overall Majority | 7/4 |
| Labour Majority | 20/1 |
| Liberal Democrat Majority | 250/1 |
| Green Party Majority | 1000/1 |
According to the bookies, there is an implied probability of 66.7% that there will be a Conservative majority come December 13, with a one-third chance that the Tories will need propping up again – either by the Brexit Party or the DUP, with whom allegiances have been soured during the Brexit negotiations.
Finally, here’s another point to consider. William Hill have revealed that for this election they are going to be basing their odds on the total number of bets received, rather than the actual weight of money that comes in.
And in the past week, Hills have cut Labour from 16/1 to 10/1 to win the most seats.
The Conservatives might want to keep their seatbelts on, as there could be a rocky road ahead….