It’s Tuesday November 3, and in America that means it’s judgement day – by the early hours, we are likely to know whether Donald Trump has won another term in the White House, or whether Joe Biden has usurped the President in the polls.
It has already proven to be one of the most divisive election campaigns in history, and the unpredictability has been reflected by the Next US President betting market.
Biden has been a comfortable favourite throughout, but some serious money has come in for trump in the past 48 hours or so. On the exchange, you can plot individual wagers and somebody, somewhere has bet £2 million Trump to do the unlikely, if not the unthinkable at odds of around 2.50.
As far as the traditional bookmakers are concerned, they have slashed Trump’s price of re-election too with 6/4 the best odds available. That is an implied probability of 40% to win, which means the President’s theoretical chance of triumphing has increased by 5% in the space of a couple of days.
However, the question that many with eyes on the market are asking is whether there has been a major overreaction or not. The bookies use market sentiment of the Exchange as their guide, and you wonder if Trump’s supporters are crashing in with big money bets in hope, rather than expectation.
Biden Closing In On the White House
Some political pundits believe that, because Biden is a more popular Democrat candidate than Hillary Clinton, Trump will have to find as many as EIGHT MILLION more votes this time around to cover the shift in sentiment.
One of the key battlegrounds will be the so-called ‘swing states’, principally Pennsylvania and Michigan, who could yet vote Democrat or Republican – these will be key in the overall shake-up.
The figures suggest that Biden will trounce Trump in Pennsylvania – that will be a watershed moment in the overall result, and he also boasts small leads in other floating stats such as Florida and Arizona.
Quite frankly, it is hard to see why there has been such a shift in momentum towards Trump in the betting – in many ways, very little has changed.
The polls are particularly interesting. In the 2016 U.S. Presidential campaign and in the EU referendum, these proved to be catastrophically way off the mark. But in America they have actually polled people who have already cast their vote – suggesting that, in theory at least, the result can be taken more seriously.
These post-vote polls give Biden a 25% lead, although this is likely to shift towards Trump on election day somewhat.
However those poll results, allied with a strong voter turnout – more than 160 million are expected to turn out – should hand considerable favouritism to the moderate candidate, e.g. Biden, over the more controversial contender who would otherwise thrive in a low turnout scenario.
Punters that have a flutter on Trump are going against reason, against the weight of numbers. And while money continues to pile in for the incumbent President, you wonder how much of this is naïve bettors hoping for a mad money grab in the last few hours of the polls being open.
There is no evidence to suggest that anything other than a Biden victory, be it by a large margin or small, is likely. At 8/13, he could represent the best value bet that you will place in a long time.