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Trump vs Biden: Could This Be the Closest US Presidential Race in History?

USA Flag Vote BadgesDespite everything that is going on in the world right now, another huge moment is just around the corner.

We are around eight weeks away from the US Presidential election, which will see the current incumbent Donald Trump take on Democratic opponent Joe Biden to see who will reside in the White House for the next four years.

The race is particularly interesting because the bookmakers do not have a clue who is going to win – here we are, two months away from the polls opening, and the bookies have Biden as a 19/20 favourite, although you will struggle to get better than 21/20 about a Trump victory.

Even the betting exchanges offer few answers, with Biden currently trading at 1.99 and Trump at 2.06 in what has become the biggest market in the firm’s history – more than £72 million has already been traded, and the possibility of passing the £100 million mark is not out of the question.

The odds are set largely from polls and voting intention, although of course we know that is likely to change as the two combatants set out on their campaign journey. Americans are a passionate bunch and tend to tie their colours to the mast with authority – it’s hard to swing them away from their red or their blue. Any floating voters in the US will make their decision based on economy – Trump has worked wonders for the markets – or humanity, an area in which the President is perhaps found lacking.

Interestingly, while sports betting is legal in many states of America political betting is not, and so we don’t have a set of odds from those closest to the action. But one thing that seems almost a given is that this will be one of the tightest and most closely-fought battles for the White House in history.

Who Will Win the US Presidential Election 2020?

The White House

At the moment, answering that question is like trying to answer whether there is life on Mars with any certainty.

Donald Trump’s supporters will vote for him come what may, and that certainty is a huge help for a President who is likely to unveil some rather outlandish plans in the coming weeks – as he did prior to his original campaign four years ago.

Biden will use the President’s bizarre handling of the coronavirus pandemic against him, but he is shy of numbers and stats that can be used against Trump – as mentioned, his record for businesses and shareholders in the past year in particular stands him in excellent stead.

It may simply come down to a question of perception. Biden seems like a nice man who served as part of the popular Barack Obama administration, whereas Trump….well, you’ve probably made your own mind up on him already.

One of the interesting trends to follow has been the betting patterns so far. Taking the weight of money wagered on a month by month basis it is clear that Biden is gaining momentum at just the right time as support for the President stagnates.

So could Donald Trump be set to vacate the White House in November?